🏐 Volleyball Tournament Simulation Report

Match Data File: data/seriea1w_2025_2026_calendar.dat

Number of Simulations: 40,000

Generated: 2026-01-21 08:53:25

Set Ratio Blending: Enabled (min matches: 5, max weight: 35%, max matches: 23)

Current Standings

Pos Team GP Points Z-score W L SW SL Ratio PS PC
1 IMOCO 21 57 1.72 20 1 61 15 4.07 1838 1517
2 SCANDICCI 21 54 1.52 19 2 58 16 3.62 1767 1411
3 MILANO 21 49 1.18 16 5 54 23 2.35 1840 1596
4 CHIERI 21 47 1.04 16 5 51 25 2.04 1778 1642
5 NOVARA 21 43 0.77 15 6 53 32 1.66 1890 1778
6 VALLEFOGLIA 21 34 0.17 12 9 43 40 1.07 1820 1829
7 FIRENZE 21 24 -0.51 8 13 33 47 0.70 1661 1802
8 UYBA 21 24 -0.51 7 14 35 46 0.76 1745 1813
9 BERGAMO 21 22 -0.64 5 16 34 50 0.68 1752 1857
10 MACERATA 21 21 -0.71 7 14 31 52 0.60 1757 1877
11 CUNEO 21 20 -0.77 7 14 27 50 0.54 1635 1804
12 PINEROLO 21 17 -0.98 6 15 32 52 0.62 1738 1912
13 SANGIOVANNI 21 17 -0.98 5 16 22 50 0.44 1537 1698
14 PERUGIA 21 12 -1.31 4 17 22 58 0.38 1650 1872

Glicko-2 Ratings

Rank Team ELO μ (Rating) φ (RD) σ (Volatility)
1 IMOCO 1691 1.100 0.465 0.0600
2 SCANDICCI 1661 0.926 0.461 0.0600
3 MILANO 1618 0.680 0.454 0.0600
4 CHIERI 1596 0.555 0.448 0.0600
5 NOVARA 1571 0.407 0.451 0.0600
6 VALLEFOGLIA 1490 -0.058 0.441 0.0600
7 UYBA 1449 -0.293 0.440 0.0600
8 BERGAMO 1446 -0.313 0.443 0.0600
9 FIRENZE 1407 -0.533 0.442 0.0600
10 PINEROLO 1403 -0.560 0.442 0.0600
11 MACERATA 1374 -0.728 0.442 0.0600
12 SANGIOVANNI 1372 -0.737 0.455 0.0600
13 CUNEO 1360 -0.807 0.446 0.0600
14 PERUGIA 1316 -1.059 0.448 0.0600

Glicko-2 Rating History

Table view (mobile): Rating Summary

Team Current Initial Change Peak Low
IMOCO 1691 1500 +191 1691 1500
SCANDICCI 1661 1500 +161 1661 1492
MILANO 1618 1500 +118 1618 1500
CHIERI 1596 1500 +96 1597 1495
NOVARA 1571 1500 +71 1589 1500
VALLEFOGLIA 1490 1500 -10 1513 1458
UYBA 1449 1500 -51 1500 1440
BERGAMO 1446 1500 -54 1500 1415
FIRENZE 1407 1500 -93 1500 1387
PINEROLO 1403 1500 -97 1517 1397
MACERATA 1374 1500 -126 1500 1374
SANGIOVANNI 1372 1500 -128 1500 1315
CUNEO 1360 1500 -140 1525 1360
PERUGIA 1316 1500 -184 1500 1316

Team Position Trajectory

Historical positions (solid lines) and forecasted positions (dashed lines) with best/worst case scenarios shown as shaded regions

Table view (mobile): Position Distribution Summary

Team Most Likely Pos Position Range Top 3 % Bottom 3 %
IMOCO 1 1–3 100.0% 0.0%
CHIERI 4 2–5 44.1% 0.0%
MILANO 3 1–5 58.1% 0.0%
SCANDICCI 2 1–5 96.4% 0.0%
NOVARA 5 3–6 1.5% 0.0%
VALLEFOGLIA 6 5–8 0.0% 0.0%
BERGAMO 8 6–14 0.0% 1.1%
UYBA 7 6–13 0.0% 0.2%
FIRENZE 9 6–13 0.0% 0.9%
CUNEO 10 7–14 0.0% 30.6%
MACERATA 11 7–14 0.0% 29.2%
PINEROLO 13 7–14 0.0% 64.5%
PERUGIA 14 9–14 0.0% 99.8%
SANGIOVANNI 13 7–14 0.0% 73.6%

Set Difference Matrix

Table view (mobile): Set Difference Matrix

Home \ Away BERGAMO CHIERI CUNEO FIRENZE IMOCO MACERATA MILANO NOVARA PERUGIA PINEROLO SANGIOVANNI SCANDICCI UYBA VALLEFOGLIA
BERGAMO — -1 +1 0 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 0 +3 -3 +3 -1
CHIERI +3 — 0 +3 -1 +3 +1 +2 +3 +2 0 0 +3 +3
CUNEO 0 -3 — +1 -3 +1 -2 -3 -1 +2 -3 +3 0 0
FIRENZE -3 -2 +3 — 0 +1 0 0 +3 -1 +2 -3 -3 -2
IMOCO +3 +2 +3 +3 — 0 +2 +2 0 0 +3 +2 +1 +2
MACERATA +1 -2 -1 -1 -3 — -3 0 +2 -3 +3 -3 -3 0
MILANO +3 +3 +3 +2 +2 +3 — -1 +3 +3 0 0 +2 +2
NOVARA +1 +3 0 +3 -3 +3 0 — +3 +2 +2 -1 +2 +1
PERUGIA 0 0 -3 -3 -3 -1 -3 +1 — +2 -2 -3 0 -1
PINEROLO -3 0 -2 -2 -3 -1 -2 -2 +3 — 0 -2 +2 -1
SANGIOVANNI +2 -3 +3 +3 -3 -1 -3 -3 0 -1 — -3 0 -3
SCANDICCI +3 +3 +3 +1 0 0 +3 +1 +2 +2 +3 — +2 +3
UYBA +1 -2 +3 0 -1 -2 0 -1 +2 -1 +2 -3 — +3
VALLEFOGLIA +2 -2 +2 -1 -3 +2 +2 0 +1 0 +3 0 +3 —

Set Win Probability Matrix

Probability of winning a single set (home team vs away team)

Table view (mobile): Set Win Probability Matrix

Home \ Away BERGAMO CHIERI CUNEO FIRENZE IMOCO MACERATA MILANO NOVARA PERUGIA PINEROLO SANGIOVANNI SCANDICCI UYBA VALLEFOGLIA
BERGAMO — 36.6% 60.0% 53.0% 29.3% 57.4% 35.1% 39.7% 65.9% 54.7% 58.8% 31.0% 51.5% 46.5%
CHIERI 68.1% — 74.7% 68.6% 44.7% 72.5% 51.2% 56.1% 79.3% 70.2% 73.6% 46.7% 67.5% 62.8%
CUNEO 44.9% 29.9% — 45.6% 23.7% 50.1% 28.6% 32.9% 58.8% 47.3% 51.6% 25.0% 44.2% 39.2%
FIRENZE 51.0% 35.5% 58.9% — 28.6% 56.3% 34.0% 38.6% 64.6% 53.5% 57.7% 30.1% 50.3% 45.3%
IMOCO 74.4% 60.3% 79.8% 74.4% — 77.9% 58.7% 63.5% 83.8% 75.9% 78.9% 54.3% 73.8% 69.5%
MACERATA 46.4% 31.2% 54.3% 47.1% 24.8% — 29.9% 34.2% 60.3% 48.9% 53.1% 26.2% 45.7% 40.7%
MILANO 69.7% 54.7% 76.1% 70.1% 46.5% 73.9% — 57.9% 80.4% 71.7% 75.1% 48.6% 69.1% 64.5%
NOVARA 65.0% 49.4% 71.8% 65.5% 41.4% 69.6% 47.8% — 76.8% 67.1% 70.7% 43.3% 64.3% 59.5%
PERUGIA 38.4% 24.6% 46.3% 39.4% 18.9% 43.6% 23.5% 27.1% — 41.0% 45.2% 20.3% 37.7% 33.1%
PINEROLO 49.2% 33.7% 57.1% 49.9% 27.0% 54.5% 32.3% 36.8% 62.9% — 55.9% 28.5% 48.5% 43.4%
SANGIOVANNI 46.6% 31.5% 54.6% 47.4% 25.1% 51.9% 30.1% 34.5% 60.4% 49.1% — 26.5% 45.9% 40.9%
SCANDICCI 72.7% 58.3% 78.6% 72.9% 50.2% 76.5% 56.6% 61.4% 82.6% 74.5% 77.7% — 72.1% 67.8%
UYBA 53.1% 37.4% 60.9% 53.8% 30.1% 58.3% 35.9% 40.5% 66.7% 55.6% 59.7% 31.8% — 47.3%
VALLEFOGLIA 58.2% 42.4% 65.8% 58.9% 34.7% 63.3% 40.8% 45.6% 71.2% 60.7% 64.6% 36.5% 57.6% —

Match Win Probability Matrix

Probability of winning the entire match (3 sets)

Table view (mobile): Match Win Probability Matrix

Home \ Away BERGAMO CHIERI CUNEO FIRENZE IMOCO MACERATA MILANO NOVARA PERUGIA PINEROLO SANGIOVANNI SCANDICCI UYBA VALLEFOGLIA
BERGAMO — 26.0% 68.3% 55.6% 15.4% 63.7% 23.7% 31.2% 77.8% 58.8% 66.2% 17.7% 52.8% 43.4%
CHIERI 81.2% — 89.3% 81.8% 40.2% 86.9% 52.2% 61.4% 93.7% 84.0% 88.1% 43.9% 80.2% 73.0%
CUNEO 40.5% 16.2% — 41.8% 9.0% 50.3% 14.5% 20.3% 66.1% 45.0% 52.9% 10.4% 39.2% 30.4%
FIRENZE 51.9% 24.3% 66.4% — 14.5% 61.7% 22.0% 29.4% 75.8% 56.6% 64.2% 16.5% 50.6% 41.2%
IMOCO 89.0% 68.8% 94.1% 89.0% — 92.4% 66.0% 74.1% 96.7% 90.6% 93.3% 58.1% 88.3% 83.1%
MACERATA 43.2% 18.0% 58.1% 44.6% 10.1% — 16.2% 22.3% 68.8% 47.9% 55.8% 11.7% 41.9% 32.9%
MILANO 83.2% 58.7% 90.8% 83.8% 43.6% 88.5% — 64.6% 94.5% 85.9% 89.7% 47.3% 82.4% 75.7%
NOVARA 76.5% 48.9% 86.0% 77.2% 34.1% 83.1% 45.8% — 91.5% 79.7% 84.6% 37.7% 75.4% 67.4%
PERUGIA 29.0% 9.9% 43.1% 30.7% 5.0% 38.2% 8.9% 12.7% — 33.4% 41.0% 6.0% 27.9% 20.7%
PINEROLO 48.5% 21.6% 63.2% 49.9% 12.5% 58.3% 19.5% 26.4% 73.2% — 60.9% 14.3% 47.1% 37.8%
SANGIOVANNI 43.7% 18.4% 58.5% 45.1% 10.4% 53.6% 16.5% 22.8% 69.0% 48.3% — 11.9% 42.4% 33.4%
SCANDICCI 87.1% 65.2% 93.1% 87.3% 50.3% 91.2% 62.2% 70.7% 96.0% 89.1% 92.3% — 86.4% 80.6%
UYBA 55.8% 27.3% 69.8% 57.2% 16.4% 65.3% 24.9% 32.7% 79.0% 60.4% 67.7% 18.8% — 45.0%
VALLEFOGLIA 65.2% 35.9% 77.7% 66.4% 23.1% 73.8% 33.1% 41.9% 85.2% 69.4% 75.9% 25.9% 64.0% —

Position Distribution Heatmap

Probability distribution of final positions for each team

Table view (mobile): Position Distribution Summary

Team Most Likely Pos Position Range Top 3 % Bottom 3 %
IMOCO 1 1–3 100.0% 0.0%
CHIERI 4 2–5 44.1% 0.0%
MILANO 3 1–5 58.1% 0.0%
SCANDICCI 2 1–5 96.4% 0.0%
NOVARA 5 3–6 1.5% 0.0%
VALLEFOGLIA 6 5–8 0.0% 0.0%
BERGAMO 8 6–14 0.0% 1.1%
UYBA 7 6–13 0.0% 0.2%
FIRENZE 9 6–13 0.0% 0.9%
CUNEO 10 7–14 0.0% 30.6%
MACERATA 11 7–14 0.0% 29.2%
PINEROLO 13 7–14 0.0% 64.5%
PERUGIA 14 9–14 0.0% 99.8%
SANGIOVANNI 13 7–14 0.0% 73.6%

Relegation Probabilities

Relegation Analysis

Relegation Probabilities (Detailed)

Team Probability
PERUGIA 99.25%
SANGIOVANNI 47.16%
PINEROLO 37.87%
CUNEO 8.58%
MACERATA 6.87%
BERGAMO 0.20%
FIRENZE 0.07%
UYBA 0.01%
Min: 17
Max: 26
Avg: 20.6

Relegation Risk Over Time

Evolution of relegation probabilities throughout remaining season

📱 Mobile View: This time-series chart shows how relegation probabilities changed over the season. On mobile, see the 'Relegation Probabilities' table above for final results.

Magic Number Tracker

Points needed to clinch playoffs, avoid relegation, or win 1st place in regular season

📱 Mobile View: This chart shows how the points needed to secure safety/playoffs/1st place changed over time. On mobile, see the summary statistics in the sections above for current point ranges.

Playoff Qualification Probabilities

Playoff Qualification Analysis

Playoff Qualification Probabilities (Detailed)

Team Probability
IMOCO 100.00%
CHIERI 100.00%
MILANO 100.00%
SCANDICCI 100.00%
NOVARA 100.00%
VALLEFOGLIA 100.00%
UYBA 84.46%
BERGAMO 70.24%
FIRENZE 37.91%
CUNEO 3.94%
MACERATA 2.59%
PINEROLO 0.59%
SANGIOVANNI 0.28%
Min: 25
Max: 37
Avg: 30.8

Playoff Qualification Risk Over Time

Evolution of playoff qualification probabilities throughout remaining season

📱 Mobile View: This time-series chart shows how playoff probabilities changed over the season. On mobile, see the 'Playoff Qualification Probabilities' table above for final results.

1st Place Regular Season Probabilities

1st Place Regular Season Analysis

1st Place Regular Season Probabilities (Detailed)

Team Probability
IMOCO 92.73%
SCANDICCI 7.26%
MILANO 0.01%
Min: 61
Max: 72
Avg: 69.1

1st Place Regular Season Probability Over Time

Evolution of 1st place regular season probabilities throughout remaining season

📱 Mobile View: This time-series chart shows how 1st place probabilities changed over the season. On mobile, see the '1st Place Regular Season Probabilities' table above for final results.

Playoff Simulation Results

Simulated 200,000 playoff brackets based on regular season outcomes.

Championship Probabilities (Playoff Winner)

Probability of winning the championship through playoff bracket

Playoff Round Advancement

Probability of reaching each playoff round

Interactive Playoff Bracket

Most likely playoff matchups and paths

Matchup Probability Matrix

Probability of any two teams meeting in playoffs

Interactive Simulation Explorer

🔍 Interactive Simulation Explorer

Explore "what-if" scenarios by constraining match outcomes. Click on any upcoming match to set a specific result, and watch how the playoff/relegation probabilities update based on the filtered simulations.

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